As Russian domestic and Chinese import demand increasing, price of pollock remains high position
According to Agriculture Department of Russia document# 553, total permitted harvest volume of far east pollock in the year of 2018 is 1781.3 kilotones,109.703 kilotones(-5.8%) less than it of 2017(1891.003 kilotones).Most of reductions are applied to Kurile Islands and Bering Sea Area.
Graph of 2000-2018 permitted volume.
Red - Bering Sea Area
Blue - Ohhotsk Sea Area(East Sakahhlin exclueded)
Green - Total Volume
Facts and analysis of market price and acending price level trend
Comparing to price level of 2017, it has increased over 20%.As the harvest season B of Bering Sea area begins along with reduction of permitted volume, harvest amount so far is still low while demand is remaining high level. From the beginning of September, 25+, H&G’s international price has once passed 1400 USD,and still climbing.We predict that it will keep climbing till the end of China Fisheries $ Seafood Expo;
According to Agriculture Department of Russia’s data, far-eastwholesale price of early august is 24% higher than it of last year; Russian middle area’s price is 25%higher.
The cause of this climbing trend is high demand from China and EU.
This year, till august,Chinese consumption of Russian pollock has increased about 12%.For wholeround, H&G and fillets, Chinese market is willing to pay more than Russian markets is.
Graph of 2016-2018 first and second quarters, Russian exported quantities of marine food material and pollock(wholeround,H&G)
Unit:kilotones
In the short term, Russian domestic pollock is very possible to consistently increase at a very small rate or remain constant because:
· High export demand;
· New round of sanction, decepreciation of Rouble to USD and EUR
· Reduction of permitted volume,low harvest amount in Alaska and Bering Sea.(35kilotones less than last year)
Although the market price is high, suppliers may not increase domestic supply because suppliers are more interested in export market.
Chinese factories and traders had bought about 90% of the stock. They are willing and capable to pay much higher price than other Russian competetitors.
In 2017, the total harvest amount of pollock reached 1800kilotones, 1500kilotones of it are exported to China and manufactured out to 800 kilotone product for export world-wild
In Russia, pollock is the third most popular sea fish following herring and salmon.
In recent years, quantities of Russian frozen pollock fillet products is consistently increasing. According to Agriculture Department of Russia’s data,frozen wholeround and fillet product increase 25% than last year and it keeps increasing. Now the price is around 3.47 to 3.77 USD/kg.
Graph of the quantities of export pollock fillets in the first half year of 2016-2018
From 2013 till now, price of pollock has doubled while the increase rate of production cost has significantly lowered. The market prospect is magnificent, of domestic and global market.Now Asian and European demand of pollock is increasing as it is considered as a safer, healthier and sustainable replacement of high-rank cod or vietnum basa.
